FXUS63 KBIS 291739 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1239 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures through the weekend, though still above average. - Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, followed by near-daily low to medium chances next week. - Marginal (level 1 out of 5) severe weather threat Saturday afternoon/evening over far southwest North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Light rain showers continue in the far south central and James River Valley. Slight pops were added to reflect the current radar. A Wind Advisory was also issued as winds across the west have continued gusting over 45 mph. This runs until 02z this evening. UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Another windy day in North Dakota as the west has on and off been gusting near 40mph. These stronger winds will slowly move east during the day. Light returns on radar are moving up from South Dakota into the James River Valley. UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Going forecast remains on track with no changes needed at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the northern Rockies, with high stretching from the upper Midwest to the Ohio River Valley. Upper level analysis places low near the Sierra with ridge over the Midwest, resulting in southerly flow over our area. For today, southeasterly winds continue over the area ahead of the aforementioned surface low, with moisture increasing. This will help quell many of the perpetual fire weather concerns, but some northern locations may remain a little drier, which when combined with the wind results in near critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will be notably cooler over the area than what we have seen over the past few days, but still remain about 10 degrees above average. Modest short wave sliding through southerly flow nudges the eastern part of our area, bringing low precipitation chances this afternoon. Upper low pushes east/northeast overnight sliding over the central Rockies by Saturday. This will bring increasing rain chances, particularly as we get into later Saturday. Greatest chances (medium to high) will be over much of western and south central North Dakota. Enough instability will be in place for some thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms over far southwest North Dakota during this time period, but some question holds whether enough deep layer shear will be in place for storms to maintain any strength. By Sunday upper low wraps into the northern Rockies nudging into the northern plains, with medium to high chances for rain showers and some thunderstorms continuing over western and much of central North Dakota, though chances do look to remain lower for the James River Valley up to the Turtle Mountains. Overall pattern looks to remain unsettled going into the upcoming work week with daily chances for precipitation. Temperatures also look to hold near to above average. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR through this evening with light rain showers possible in the east. Southeast winds will gust to 40 kts in the west and 25 kts in the east. Winds will calm slightly overnight. MVFR to IFR CIGs will move in overnight along with showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Thunderstorms could produce erratic and gusty winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>004-009-010-012-017>020-031>033-040>044-055>062. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Smith