ACUS11 KWNS 012155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012154 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-020000- Mesoscale Discussion 0942 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle southward toward the US-Mexico Border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012154Z - 020000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop along the dryline from western Oklahoma panhandle south toward Mexico. The main severe threat should be strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows. DISCUSSION...A surface dryline exists across far western portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle south to the US-Mexico border. To the east of the dryline surface dewpoints are generally in the 50F range, although some observations have recently mixed into the upper 40Fs, with dewpoints to the west in the 30Fs to low 40Fs range. Surface convergence along this boundary is not overly strong with winds on either side of the boundary generally having a southerly component to them. That said, loops of recent water vapor imagery shows a belt of large-scale ascent moving east out of the Southwest/southern Rockies and overspreading the dryline. In turn, latest visible imagery shows the cumulus field along the dryline becoming a bit more agitated, with increased vertical development. in response to the large-scale ascent, with increasing mid-level echoes now depicted on radar across portions of the northwest Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma panhandle. Additional thunderstorms have developed farther east across the Texas panhandle in an area of better surface moisture, likely the result of strong boundary layer circulations and local terrain effects owing to the caprock. Lastly, marginally severe thunderstorms have also developed in far southwest Texas. The thermodynamic environment all along the dryline is sufficient for thunderstorms, with MUCAPE ranging from around 1000 J/kg along the dryline to early 3000 J/kg farther east. Kinematically speaking, however, deep-layer shear is rather anemic, with generally less than 20-25 knots analyzed. Given the degree of instability, continued vertical mixing associated with deepening boundary layer circulations will likely support additional thunderstorm development along the dryline. The lack of deep-layer shear should limit the overall organization of the storms, favoring pulse-type cellular convection, but a few multi-cell clusters may also evolve. Given the deepening boundary layer, this cells will likely be high-based, with increasingly dry sub-cloud layers (especially across western portions of the highlighted area) with a tendency to produce strong, cold outflows capable of isolated damage. The isolated nature of the severe threat should preclude the need for a watch, but the region will be monitored for any areas where thunderstorm organization might occur. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 29420425 34340367 36480312 36940296 36950181 36969996 36659972 36149944 35389955 34839970 34350024 30980217 29660262 29130278 28940305 28900317 29150393 29420425 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN