FXUS66 KMFR 102143
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
243 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Minor to Moderate impacts expected through this forecast

* The heat this weekend into early next week will bring Moderate
  impacts to the area as temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees
  above normal
    - Many westside areas could see highs around 100 degrees

* Frost potential for some eastside areas Thursday morning

* Monitoring fire weather conditions through the heatwave
    - Will see at least elevated fire weather concerns
    - Fuels forecast to become receptive for most of the area

Further Details:

An area of 500mb high pressure over the Pacific located between
130W/140W and 30N/40N will remain in place over the next few days,
resulting in a dry northwesterly flow over the forecast area with
no signals for precipitation. By this weekend, this center is
closer to 130W and 40N and subsequently resulting in higher
heights over the forecast area. By Saturday, temperatures are
going to nudge closer to about 15 degrees above normal with Sunday
and Monday both closer to about 20 degrees above normal. Many
westside valleys will be close to 100 degrees on Sunday/Monday and
potentially Tuesday.

Fire weather will need closer monitoring once the heat wave
begins and fuels start to trend higher towards the 90th percentile
and in some cases potentially the 97th percentile. At this time,
wind conditions may be the one variable that keeps conditions
tamed, but wind speeds will start to increase Saturday. This may
result in at least elevated fire weather conditions this weekend
and more likely next week.

Of note, but beyond this forecast period, there is the potential
for the forecast to remain dry into later parts of this month.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the
region with some lingering scattered-broken low end VFR stratus
north of Cape Blanco and in the Umpqua Basin. VFR will prevail
through the TAF period for most locations, with gusty north to
northwest breezes this afternoon and evening. Winds will be
strongest along the coast where gusts of 20 to 30 kt are expected.
Skies will likely remain clear overnight, though some patchy
IFR/LIFR could develop in the deeper portions of the Coquille and
Umpqua Basins late tonight. All area terminals should remain VFR.
/BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, June 10, 2026...A
strengthening thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and
steep to locally very steep wind driven seas south of Cape Blanco
this afternoon and evening. The gusty north winds and steep seas
are expected to spread north of Cape Blanco by Thursday morning
and last through the weekend, while gales and very steep seas
develop south of Port Orford. Winds and seas should ease somewhat
next week, but probably at least remain hazardous to small craft.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ029>031.

CA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-
     376.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$