FOCN45 CWWG 111900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY JUNE
11 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...RAINFALL WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
MANITOBA, THE KIVALLIQ, AND KUGAARUK.

OVERVIEW...

UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEALED SLIGHT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF BC FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDING OVER THE AB/BC BORDER TO AN
UPPER HIGH NEAR GREAT SLAVE LAKE. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA WITH TROUGING SOUTHWARDS INTO THE DAKOTAS, WESTWARD THROUGH
SK AND AB AND NORTHWARD TO THE KITIKMEOT. SEVERAL POTENT VORT MAXES
SPINNING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER
QUEBEC AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN HUDSON BAY, FOXE BASIN
AND BAFFIN ISLAND. FINALLY, AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER DAVIS STRAIT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN INTENSE 986 MB LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANITOBA AND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE KIVALLIQ. A 1022 MB HIGH LIES OVER EASTERN BAFFIN ISLAND
WITH RIDIGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LABRADOR COAST. A 1026 MB HIGH
LIES OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NWT.

DISCUSSION...

ALBERTA...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PRAIRIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL, UNSETTLED, AND SHOWERY ACROSS ALBERTA AGAIN TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. IN GENERAL, MOST STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING OVER 750 J/KG COMBINED WITH STRONGER
SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA, MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP, THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE HAIL IN THE 2-3 CM RANGE.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA FROM B.C OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
BRINGING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALBERTA ON
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE, A FEW CENTIMETERS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 93 THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PARKS.

SOUTHERN MB/SK...COOLER, SHOWERY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE
CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
300-500 J/KG SBCAPE AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF BULK WIND SHEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, PEA SIZE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHEAST MB...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
GIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. THE RAINFALL WARNING
HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARDS.

NUNAVUT...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM MADE ITS WAY INTO
NAUJAAT AND KUGAARUK OVERNIGHT AND WILL SWING WESTWARD INTO THE
KIVALLIQ TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF PROLONGED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 30 TO 50 MM EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH STALLS OVER
THE REGION AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A RAINFALL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
NAUJAAT AND WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KIVALLIQ COAST.

END/LUZNY/MARK