FXUS63 KBIS 120624
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
124 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to below average temperatures favored through early next
  week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s and lows mostly in
  the 40s.

- Breezy northwest winds expected through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Showers appear to have ended for the night, although a stray
shower could redevelop. Quiet weather is expected through
tonight. The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers and clouds continue to dissipate this evening, with
only a few isolated showers remaining, moving east-southeast.
Will readjust POPs based on latest trends. No other changes.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms continue early
this evening, also driven by mid level embedded energy pushing
southeast across the region. Expect convection to dissipate and
clouds to start decreasing as we get closer to sunset and
especially thereafter. Tweaked sky cover and POPs based on
latest observations and trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026


Currently cyclonic flow at the lower and mid levels are
producing widespread scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This is all rotating around an upper low near
Hudson Bay Canada. At the surface breezy northwest winds are
present post cold frontal passage this morning. No severe
thunderstorms are expected this evening as CAPE is well under
1000 J/kg, with shear around 15kts. As the diurnal heating ends,
so will the showers and thunderstorms today.

This cyclonic flow will continue through this weekend. Another
shortwave embedded in the flow will move in Friday. Most CAMs
have more scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon so
that was added to the PoP forecast Friday afternoon. Friday
will be slightly warmer with highs near average in the central and
south, and breezy to strong northwest winds will continue,
especially this weekend. The rest of the weekend a slight surface
high pressure will slide into eastern Montana, ending the diurnal
showers and thunderstorms. That surface high will pull cooler
temperatures down from Canada into North Dakota Saturday. Leading to
high temperatures 10 degrees below average across the state. Towards
the end of the weekend into early next week, northwest flow will
setup. During this period, warmer 850mb temperatures will move back
east over the state. Leading to temperatures warming back to average
by the middle of next week. Another shortwave in the flow will move
into the state again Monday, resulting in more showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night a surface low off the
northern Rockies, and strong mid level flow will create more chances
for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rest of the week could
either be a slight ridge over the Northern Plains, or zonal flow
with active shortwaves moving in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There
is a low chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday
afternoon and evening, but the probability is not high enough
to mention in any TAF. Westerly winds around 5-10 kts through
tonight, then once again increasing to 15-20 kts out of the
northwest Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan