FXUS63 KBIS 190548 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. The threat for severe weather is low. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. - A gradual warming trend through next week, along with continued chances for precipitation each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Showers will continue to push eastward tonight, with chances for thunderstorms diminishing. Made some minor changes to PoPs based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly in a north/south line in the Highway 83 corridor. These will continue moving east through the late evening. To the west there are weak isolated rain showers. The rest of the forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The upper level shortwave has entered western North Dakota, thus widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed. No severe storms are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Currently, northwest flow aloft with a steady northwest low/mid level flow across the region. Diurnal instability along with subtle embedded waves in flow aloft contributing to widespread CU along with some weak to modest radar returns. Little shear present limiting so far any stronger updrafts. A more defined embedded S/WV trough slides across the Dakotas later today through tonight, and will bring a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms from west to east across western and central North Dakota. One can already see this activity to our west over north central and northeastern Montana. Some increase in bulk shear values, so a few stronger storms will be possible with this wave. Continued unsettled northwest flow for Friday, with enough CAPE and shear for diurnally driven chances for showers or a few thunderstorms north central and east. S/WV mid level ridge building over the Northern High Plains region within a broader split flow regime Saturday, results in increasing south-southeasterly flow and WAA, leading to warmer temperatures to start the weekend. Both a northern and southern stream S/WV trough then propagate east towards the Dakotas later in the weekend, with the southern stream feature more progressive and moving across South Dakota Sunday, keeping precip chances along the ND/SD border area and south. A sfc trough associated with the northern stream wave remains along the MT/ND border, keeping precip chances far west Sunday, with dry conditions expected elsewhere. The northern stream S/WV is then forecast to close off over the Northern Plains Sun night through Monday, and will bring widespread chances for showers and storms to much of the state this period. Thereafter, a slow warming trend is favored through the work week as ensemble means depict zonal flow and/or ridging developing across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains. In the wake of this flow pattern, long range ensembles in fair agreement with a troughing pattern materializing to our west, which would tend to maintain near normal temperatures and bring better chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 A few showers may linger through tonight, generally east of a line from KMOT to KBIS including KJMS. Low VFR conditions to brief MVFR conditions are possible with these rain showers. Friday then sees breezy northwest winds for all sites with low VFR to perhaps some MVFR ceilings at times. Some showers may be found in eastern North Dakota, although are not expected at any TAF sites at this time. Winds and lingering precipitation chances diminish Friday evening, with VFR conditions also expected. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Anglin