FXUS63 KBIS 190855
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
355 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  today through this evening, mainly across north central and
  eastern portions. The threat for severe weather is low.

- Breezy northwest winds will be found today, with gusts near 30
  mph. Breezy southeast winds to be found this weekend.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend. A few
  showers and thunderstorms in the west and southwest Saturday
  evening through Saturday night. More widespread shower and
  thunderstorm chances expected Sunday.

- A gradual warming trend through next week, along with near
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A shortwave moving through northwest flow will bring showers and
a few thunderstorms across north central and eastern portions
this morning. This northwest flow then lingers aloft for the
remainder of the day, and combined with some weak instability
could bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
day, especially in the northeast. The threat for severe weather
is low today. Temperatures will remain near 70 degrees today for
most areas, with slightly cooler temperatures to the more cloudy
areas north and east. The stacked northwest flow from the
surface to the higher levels could also bring some breezy winds
today, with gusts near 30 mph. Short of advisory criteria but
still noticeable. Ridge of high pressure moves in tonight,
bringing clearing skies and light winds. Cooler temperatures
will also be found tonight, with lows in the 40s. Clear skies
and these cooler temperatures could provide for some patchy fog
tonight, although confidence was not high enough to include in
the forecast at this time.

Ridge pushes eastward on Saturday, with southeasterly flow
developing in its wake. This could lead to some breezy winds
across the west, and warming temperatures into the 70s for most.
Mainly dry conditions are expected during the day Saturday.
Saturday evening through Saturday night, developing surface low,
and a split trough feature aloft could bring some showers and
thunderstorms to the southwest and perhaps some western
portions. Depending on where the axis of instability sets up, an
isolated strong storm is possible in the southwest, however, SPC
just has general thunderstorm risk in these areas for now. The
more organized low in the mentioned split feature then moves
through Sunday. This will bring more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances, with cooler temperatures, and continued
breezy east to southeast winds. Instability looks limited with
the wave, thus the threat for severe weather will remain low on
Sunday.

The low that moves into the area Sunday stalls across the region
and brings unsettled and cooler conditions to start next week on
Monday, and possibly lingering through Tuesday. A shift to
breezy westerly winds can also be expected early next week as
this system moves through. The threat for severe weather still
looks to remain low given an overall lack of instability.
Confidence is still moderate to high in a warming trend mid to
late next week. Most clusters bring brief ridging which should
also bring a period of mainly dry conditions around mid week.
The majority of clusters then moves this ridge eastward sometime
later next week which could return a more unsettled weather
with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. CSU- MLP also
starting to hint at the return of at least isolated strong to
severe storms with this warmer and unsettled pattern which will
be worth monitoring later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few showers may linger through tonight, generally east of a
line from KMOT to KBIS including KJMS. Low VFR conditions to
brief MVFR conditions are possible with these rain showers.
Friday then sees breezy northwest winds for all sites with low
VFR to perhaps some MVFR ceilings at times. Some showers may be
found in eastern North Dakota, although are not expected at any
TAF sites at this time. Winds and lingering precipitation
chances diminish Friday evening, with VFR conditions also
expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin