FXUS63 KFGF 192124 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 424 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms in west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Main hazards include hail to the size of quarters, brief tornadoes, and gusts to 60 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper troughing remains in place over central Canada, placing the Dakotas and Minnesota under zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. Several shortwave troughs, including one notable traversing the region this afternoon, will move through this flow over our region into next week. This keeps bouts of shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, including severe storms this afternoon (more details below). However, shortwave ridging between shortwave troughs will allow some reprieve from shower and thunderstorm chances, including one this weekend that promotes mostly dry conditions. Within this pattern, average to below average temperatures continue. It isn't until mid to late next week ensemble guidance suggests synoptic pattern change to more upper riding over the central CONUS with the upper troughing in Canada diminishing and migrating eastward. This would promote a general warming trend away from below average temperatures toward average to above average temperatures. This also introduces more widespread instability into the region for potentially subsequent storms to utilize. However at this time, confidence is too low to comment on potential for severe storms mid to late next week other than there are no glaring signals for robust severe chances. ...Isolated severe storms this afternoon... Shallow but stout shortwave trough and attendant surface trough/cold front is traversing the region allowing showers and storms this afternoon. While dew points only into the 50s and temperatures remaining relatively cool into the 60s and low 70s, there is unseasonably cold air aloft contributing to sufficient instability to feed thunderstorms. Increasing wind speed with height will also help organize convection. This keeps main hazard of hail to size of quarters as the main threat. Couldn't rule out gusty winds to 60 mph either. This potential exists mainly in west-central MN through 6 PM, but also into southern Red River Valley. Additionally, there is enough spin in the atmosphere (especially along wind shift lines supplying ambient vertical vorticity for updrafts to latch on to and tighten) to keep potential for brief weak tornadoes to develop, particularly toward central MN before 5 PM. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 408 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Main impact to TAFs are potential thunderstorms and lowered ceilings. While confidence is high in widespread showers and scattered storms, confidence remains low to medium on exact impact to TAF sites. Sites most at risk for storm impacts is KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI. Thunderstorm chances markedly decrease after 7 PM. Lowered ceilings into the MVFR to IFR category are also around the region before 00Z. There could be fog impacts between 08Z-15Z tonight/Saturday morning as well. Confidence is low in this as well however. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ