NOCN05 CWAO 251945

GENOT TLTP. NO. 002

PUBLIC FORECASTS EXTENDING TO INCLUDE DAYS 6 AND 7.

STARTING ON MARCH 4 2009 AT 1700UTC THE PUBLIC FORECASTS WHICH 
CURRENTLY COVER DAYS 1 TO 5 WILL BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE DAYS 6 AND 
7. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL ENTAIL MODIFICATIONS TO THE PRODUCTION OF 
THE SCRIBE MATRICES AND TO SCRIBE ITSELF.

VERIFICATIONS ON BOTHE SUMMER AND WINTER CASES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE 
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM GAVE BETTER REULTS THAN USING THE GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SYTEM FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM 
ALSO SHOWED BETTER STABILITY FROM FORECAST JUMPINESS.

THUS A NEW SERIES OF SCRIBE MATRICES ARE ALREADY PRODUCED FROM THE 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM AND TRANSMITTED SINCE NOVEMBER 12 
2008. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED TO PRODUCE THE PUBLIC FORECASTS 
OF DAYS 6 AND 7. THESE MATRICES WILL BE BASED ON 0000UTC AND 
1200UTC INTEGRATIONS AND WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 0530UTC AND 1730UTC 
RESPECTIVELY.

THE NEW 3.10.2 VERSION OF SCRIBE WILL ALLOW THE INGESTION OF THE 
ENSEMBLE BASED MATRICES AND THE PRODUCTION OF THE PUBLIC FORECASTS 
UP TO DAY 7.

FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING TECHNICAL NOTE:
HTTP://WWW.SMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/OP_SYSTEMS/RECENT_E.HTML

FOR SPECIFIC QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IMPLEMENTATION, YOU CAN 
WRITE TO: PRODUCTION-INFO(AT)CMC.EC.GC.CA

GRIMES ADMA - MSC / SMA - SMC TORONTO